Hope Is Not A Strategy

Observations on the GOP Primary endgame.

Christie Is Out And I’m…happy?

Chris was always going to end this way. Always.

For me, courage is always the highest virtue, and courage late is still better than courage never. His desire to restore his reputation — to the degree that’s possible in the fallen world in which we live today — is actually quite admirable. Most people today play by the never-apologize, never-admit, never-concede rules of our shameless and shameful politics.

Does he want a path back into the green rooms of the world? Sure. Does he want to make the hard jump and do the one thing that severs the tie to his comfort and ambition by endorsing Joe Biden?

That jury is still out.

With that said, Christie has two simple tests ahead. The first is whether he continues the cadence and intensity of his critique of Trump. He may not know it yet, but there is no home to go back to in the GOP. It’s over. He’s done. (Chris, it’s honestly not as bad as you think. We have good wine and snacks.)

The second is the aforementioned endorsement of Biden, and that one is a lot harder for him. I do understand it, having been on that journey for longer than he has, but history will view that as the only real test of his seriousness. Not endorsing Biden is still half-in on Trump. I don’t make the rules.

For all that, I hope Chris keeps the flamethrower focused on Trump, and becomes a part of the dialogue, particularly about Trump’s legal jeopardy, a subject on which the former Federal prosecutor can speak with expertise and venom.

Nikki’s Best Night

Which is, if I may be politically incorrect, is like being the tallest of the seven dwarves; you’re still not the main character in the story.

She was aggressive, informed, and threw shade and elbows like a person who knows she has the narrowest window to survive her coming defeats and keep her political ambitions alive for the future. She gutted DeSantis over and over again, and even crossed an impressive line by saying, “Trump lost that election. Biden won it.”

She was a prepared, speech-trained candidate from another era. Fact and talking points have been hammered into her for weeks now, and it shows.

“I wish Donald Trump was up on this stage. He’s the one I’m running against,” she said early on. It’s doubtful she’ll get her wish.

I’m hearing that even the big money is quietly winding down for her, but she certainly went further into the anti-Trump lane cleared by Christie’s departure than even I expected. The press knows this thing is on a glidepath to Trump, but will keep pushing the what-if counterfactuals until the last dog dies.

My modest prediction is this: she’ll slightly overperform in Iowa, meaningfully overperform in New Hampshire, and get her clock cleaned at home in South Carolina.

The game is over, she knows it, and is looking for the graceful exit that leaves the money class muttering, “She’s promising…she never really screwed up, she just couldn’t beat Trump.”

The End of Ron DeSantis

As you know, I’ve been the king of all short-sellers on DeSantis futures since 2021. A black hole where charisma goes to die, DeSantis last night sounded for the first few minutes of the debate like hot tears of humiliation and regret were welling up inside him and ready to burst out in a torrent. Haley, though she falls into the same camp of doomed soldiers charging the battlements of Fort MAGA, absolutely eviscerated DeSantis on his campaign, his lies, his spending, and his private jet addiction.

(Ron, I get it. I’ve flown on private jets more than the average guy due to the kind of clients I had in my GOP days, and they’re SWEET. If I could afford one, I’d love it, but I can’t even get near one, and I make a bit more than your salary from the state of Florida.)

DeSantis built an expectation that he would be the bridge from Trump, the MAGA-friendly culture warrior with the elite credentials and resume that winked to the business elite, whispering sotto voce, “It’s all an act for the rubes.” The rivers of cash that flooded DeSantis were unprecedented, as was the burn rate of his profligate campaign and wastrel SuperPAC run by master political spendthrift Jeff Roe.

One lobbyist texted me last night, “I’m so fucking sick of him and his people. Never seen anyone so arrogant and so bad at the game.” If I could share who it was, DeSantis world would melt down.

The idea that 2028 is Ron’s time is, as of now, predicated on the fantasy that the same kind of money will be there in the future. It won’t. A huge chunk of his cash came from people in Florida’s business and lobbying community unwilling to cross a powerful governor with an obedient legislature. The Legislature will stay in line this year, but the future looks dark for the once golden child of the Florida GOP.

He’ll either stay or go after Iowa, but none of it matters. The die was cast the moment he bought in to two fantasies; first the one Roe sold him of Iowa as the gateway to the White House, and all he needed was $50 million or so.

The second fantasy was that he could be Diet Trump.

MAGAs want all the sugar, all the fat, all the preservatives, and all the caffeine. Why settle for a culture war Ronny One-Note like DeSantis? The DeSantis predicates — that he’d win with a crew of based culture war paid Twitter influencers led by the Christina Pushaw (who may or may not be referred to around here as “Ilsa, She Wolf of the SS”).

Haley has at least a chance to leave the race having run a campaign with legs beyond Iowa. DeSantis will be remembered as a candidate without the soul, humanity, and charisma to ignite human emotions in anyone. I’ll miss watching the glitchy human emotion simulation software and his mysterious tongue gestures for entire hours after he leaves the race.

Here We Go

Iowa is Monday, and DeSantis will likely now come in third, if the polling I’m seeing holds up. I suspect the fact that the high temperature in Iowa will be -1 F on Monday (I arrive Saturday, when the high is a balmy 6 degrees F) that the vaunted DeSantis ground game is about to come crashing down and we’ll have a relatively low turnout overall.

The debate last night was fratricidal and pointless. None of their attacks on Trump have ever worked before; record, electability, dignity, calmness, conservative cred or leadership qualities have never changed the mind of one MAGA primary voters.

Not once.

Ever.

Trump’s Fox town hall (that’s my next article) shows that marriage is back on again. Expect a unity of message and effort from the Trump campaign and the Fox Network at levels previously unseen.

As always, it’s going to be Biden versus Trump. It’s going to be long, bloody, and ugly. Strap in tight. The ride is about to get rough.