Pick Up The Sword.
How is this hard, Democrats?
No one gives a good god-damn about 90% of your policy portfolio — in 2024, abortion and women’s rights are a singular exception — but you’re straining to run back to boring American to death with policy mumbling that won’t win so you won’t have to pick up the sword.
What sword? No, it’s not Excalibur, stuck in a stone in the churchyard.
It’s Donald Trump’s criminal record.
“So when he came to the churchyard Sir Arthur alighted, and tied his horse to the stile, and so he went to the tent, and found no knights there, for they were at the justing; and so he handled the sword by the handles, and lightly and fiercely pulled it out of the stone, and took his horse and rode his way till he came to his brother Sir Kay, and delivered him the sword.”
His criminal convictions — to date — are unprecedented, a sign of his moral and political failure as a man, a businessman, and a candidate. They’re also a sign of the MAGA GOP’s loss of its dignity and reputation as a law-and-order party.
So, why in the name of hell are the Democrats already talking about “moving on” and “letting the press cover it” and “shifting to policy?
Trump’s 34 guilty verdicts in Manhattan.
Do they move on to popular (and by that I mean screamingly unpopular) topics like Gaza and Israel? Do they’re “Let the media do its job” on covering the story? (By which I mean, let the Trump people play the refs relentlessly until a month from now mainstream press will be calling it “Joe Biden’s Legal Assassination Plan Against The Innocent Businessman Donald Trump.”)
Do they stick to policy or hang Trump’s criminality around the necks of their Republican opponents? Or do they move on something that makes Democrats purr — “Today we’re releasing our interim policy goals for electric vehicles.”
This is why Democrats lose.
Far too often — not universally, but a majority of the time — the lack the bloody-minded brutality needed when dealing with bloody-minded brutes.
You Have To Fight Him Every Day
There’s no letup. No breaks. No breathers. His evil never sleeps. It nver takes a day off. It will relentlessly attack Joe Biden every hour of this election.
How To Think About The Post-Conviction Polls:
First, the Divided States of America rarely produces the kind of polling outcomes that existed in the era before 2016.
I may write more about the polling flood, but here’s are four quick takeaways for you:
A majority thinks the case was fairly decided.
A plurality think Trump should end his campaign.
Being a felon hurts him with independents, Bannon Line Republicans, women, African Americans, and Hispanics.
Between 10-20% of Republican voters say they’re less likely to voter for Trump because of these convictions.
Hit Him At His Weakest Spot, Not The Immovable Base
The differences between the MAGA base GOP voter and the growing cohort of Lincoln Project Republicans and conservative independents on the Bannon Line are political, moral, cultural, and aesthetic.
We saw how Nikki Haley became a sink for their anger and anxiety about Trump in the GOP primary. Now, they’re pinging the sonar like a pack of destroyers hunting a U-Boat. Remind these voters every day that they were right about their reservations over Trump in 2016 and in 2020. We’re not selling to the mooks. We’re selling to the middle.
The Double Hater Escape Hatch Closed A Bit
The “double haters” had an easier time when it could in some way be argued this was a contest between Republican Trump and Democrat Biden. That allowed the old partisan gravity of the GOP to draw them back to a grudging vote for Trump.
Now, the Double Haters have to cast a vote for a convicted felon. Say what you will about Joe Biden, he’s not a criminal. The doouble haters
Don’t Get Suckered By The “This is GREAT for Trump” Bullshit
A Trump-world-adjacent source today confessed to me that the numbers they’re putting out with so much swagger aren’t real. Internally, they’re nervous and concerned about the impact. Trump is personally absolutely terrified of a sentence that includes even a day of incarceration.
Not a single person who says “I wasn’t voting for the 38x criminal felon before but the Democrats being so mean has converted me to a MAGA fan and Trump voter” exists in the universe. This is one of the oldest PR tricks in the MAGA portfolio, and one the media is taking hook, line, and greasy sinker.
Trump’s Remaining Advantages
As insane as it sounds, Trump, a multiply-bankrupt fake billionaire con artist retains a single pillar of strength in almost every survey: the economy. This is what I’ve long referred to as The Apprentice Effect, a deeply-seated public belief that Trump was and is a successful businessman. Biden needs
Finally, the Democratic base isn’t as solid for Biden as it needs to be. Hard to fix, hard to manage as a political problem, this is one that keeps me awake at night. The progressive edge cases who continue to use language like, “Well, we might as well let Trump win because Genocide Joe won’t adopt a pro-Hamas position on Gaza” are almost definitionally unreachable, but getting the reality of a second Trump term in their face with a stark and brutal messaging campaign (“Get on board or get Trump.”) seems like a growing necessity.
This, this, this, every day.
All the policies ever imagined will be of no use whatsoever to anyone, if the Dems lose in November.
To my fellows, save it for November 6th. Then roll out the details, bore yourselves to sleep if you wish, debate every nit-picking point.
But for god's sake: first win this election.
Beat the convicted felon like a one-dollar thrift store drum, mercilessly, thoroughly, finally.
It's a fight to the finish and there is no 2nd place.
Just like in 2020, it's going to take every one of us on Team Democracy to take trump down.