What To Expect Out of Iowa

Mostly, delusion.

Iowa results are about to flow over us like an icy wave.

Before I get started, join us live on LPTV’s The Countdown at 9:00pm ET tonight and we’ll dissect all the Iowa insanity:

In a normal universe in normal primary in a normal year, Iowa would still be a badv predictor of the rest of the Republican Primary. Just ask a few of the recent winners of the Hoth Caucus; Pat Robertson, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and the Abominable Ted Cruz never had the opportunity to put “President” in front of their names, despite big wins in Iowa.

But we don’t live in a normal time, so there are very few scenarios where Trump’s cultlike following, 100% name ID, social normative pressure, and organizational push (late, but real) don’t push him over the finish line.

Here are a few things I expect out of tonight’s results:

1. Trump’s victory is only a matter of degree. People will parse that degree tonight like a team of Jesuit semioticians, but in a GOP primary with a lot of winner-take-all states coming up, a win is a win is a win.
   

   Everyone else is out of money, time, and places to win.
   

2. The value (or lack thereof) of the vaunted DeSantis Field Operation will be judged tonight, but even if he beats Nikki Haley, the ROI is spectacularly, nay, comically awful. He’s dead, but too dumb to lay down by the side of the road and start letting vultures complete the circle of life.
   

3. The weather won’t matter as much. I spent the weekend in Iowa and I’ve never experienced anything even remotely so frigid. It was gulag weather. I suspect low turnout will be more attributable to the collapse DeSantis and the missishness of the vibe for Haley.
   

4. It’s over, but it’s not over for the media. You must expect an absolutely heroic effort to slap the paddles on Nikki Haley, even after a 25+ point Trump victory. (As an aside, per Jonathan Martin’s reporting) No Labels will claim that she’s absolutely, positively going to run on their ticket. Ain’t happening.)
   

5. Trump beats Governor Kim Reynolds…and they come crawling back to him. Ron DeSantis won arguably the two most powerful Iowa endorsements to which any Republican candidate could aspire…and they simply won’t matter. Reynolds has already pre-endorsed Trump on Fox, but sister, the pain you’re going to suffer from Donnie’s rage is not going to fade quickly. Expect the Iowa Nuclear Waste Center to be placed in downtown Des Moines by executive order.
   

6. Watch the evangelical vote; only the good Lord knows how much DeSantis and Vanderplats have moved those numbers, but I suspect that, much like my broader Diet Trump theory, Ron being a marginally less horrendous human won’t be enough to overcome their desire to worship the Umber Idol.