Failed State
The House Republicans Stare Into The Abyss
If we saw a government as profoundly dysfunctional as the House GOP in any third-world nation, the U.S. and the U.N. would send humanitarian aid by the container ship-load. We’d fly in NGO governance specialists to train people to administer a country.
Paralyzed, ungovernable, locked in a torturous spiral of grotesquely negative incentives, the MAGA GOP’s end-state is in sight: a majority without the will, discipline, or courage to govern in even the most cursory way, a profound willingness to deadlock over purity, and an eye to the Fourth Branch of Government, Fox News.
Kevin McCarthy’s ascent to the throne was clearly shaky from the jump. The Scalise flop, the Jordan dumpster fire, and now whatever hybrid clown show is in effect at the moment of this writing seems like it’s been going on forever, but we’re really only two weeks in.
We’re nowhere near Belgium yet, which deadlocked for 589 days without an elected government, which the Google Machine tells me is a world record for the longest period of time a democratic country has been without a government.
Why? This time, it was the eternal Flemish-Walloon language battle, obviously. It’s been at the root of Belgian crises in the last 500 years. Henry De Man once called it “the balance between Teutonic and Gallic influence at the most vital spot of their time-honored battlefront.” And you think MAGA vs normie conflict is something.
Wolves smell fresh meat, and Israel’s series of deadlocked elections, political uncertainty, and Bibi’s moves to politize the Israeli Supreme Court (who does he think he is, Leonard Leo?) were, as the lawyers say, an attractive nuisance. The current war in Israel wasn’t inevitable, but it's worse given the shaky coalition of Bibi Netanhayu’s government.
The chaos to come cannot be overstated. The weakness of the rudderless, leaderless House is beyond embarrassing; it’s dangerous. The world watches as the greatest democracy slides into chaos, infighting, and juvenile politics that would embarrass a middle school student government. Our economy and security are quite obviously secondary to the desires of the Republican chaos caucus, and that’s sadly a feature, not a bug.
My Take On What Happens Next
I’d tell you that no one really knows, but we really do.
Republicans follow the Ohm’s law of politics; they always take the path of least resistance. They’ll temporize and flail around until the next vote and the next and the next as the crazies call their homes and offices, as the news coverage puts its grim focus on their cowardice and eventually, painfully, reluctantly vote for…Jim Jordan.
Stop expecting heroes in the GOP. The incentives are inverted. Obedience, abnegation, and depraved cowardice are safer than courage, strength, and character. They know what they should do: make a deal with Democratic Leader Jefferies for a moderate caretaker speakership focusing on the budget and aid for Ukraine and Israel.
The gap between “should” and “will” has never been wider.
At this writing, another vote is scheduled for Thursday, October 19th, at 10 a.m. ET. The Jordan forces don’t have the votes, but the slow erosion of the normie caucus in the Trump era flows in only one direction: toward the worst of our politics and nation. The normies are confident and boast of their small-ball play against Jordan in private, but the madmen are loud, proud, and on television 24/7. Do not expect heroism.
The pain may continue for two, three, or a dozen more votes, but the smart money in Washington is on the darkest possible outcome. The GOP is a failed state, a husk of a party, a desiccated shell of an idea replaced by trolling, political arson, and an addiction to chaos and political destruction. Jim Jordan is its perfect apotheosis, exemplifying every bad idea, instinct, and motivation in the corrupt and low party the GOP has become.
The political abyss is calling, and the Republican party in the House is staring into its ebon depths and whispering, “This isn’t so bad.”
I don't expect heroism. At this point I'm just praying for divine intervention.
I’m reminded of a conversation I had with a Canadian woman just weeks after the Danger Yam (credit for this goes to someone somewhere else) was elected. We were both just passing through Wells, NV and we shared a table in a cafe. We were both still reeling from the disaster unfolding, so politics did come up - very cautiously. She said something that has stuck with me. In her view, a big reason for some important differences between Canadians and American can be traced back to the days when Hollywood was golden, and cinema took over a big chunk of time. In her view, people on both sides of the border had approximately equal exposure, but Canadians tended to keep the understanding that what was on screen was fiction, whereas Americans seemed to lose track of what was real and what was fantasy. They enjoyed the entertainment, we believed we could have that glamorous life.
So I ponder the ability of so many to buy in completely to the alternate reality of the maga state of mind. I marvel that literally millions cling to the fascist fantasies believing that they will somehow prosper under authoritarian rule. Perhaps they all see themselves as the heroes who will ultimately rise to the upper echelons when maga is finally achieved. I think perhaps they didn’t stay for the part of the movies where consequences come home to roost.