Jack Smiths October Surprise

As October Surprises go, Jack Smith is now the reigning champion.

Last night, Judge Tanya Chutkan made a significant filing from Special Counsel Jack Smith public in Donald Trump’s January 6th case. Within its 165 pages, America was once again confronted with the depth, intent, and outright criminality of Donald Trump’s plan to overturn the election he lost.

The filing catalogs his efforts to snatch victory from Joe Biden through fraud, corruption, deception, and, ultimately, violence. In short, Donald Trump led a conspiracy of dunces, C-tier lawyers, thugs, eager political operatives, and outright criminals to steal what he couldn’t win.

The political world erupted when the filing dropped. Even Fox News host Neil Cavuto seemed momentarily stunned into honesty, saying, "In this newly unsealed court paper, we're learning that former President Trump resorted to crime in a bid to cling to power after the 2020 election." Cavuto spoke with the demeanor of a man facing a grim truth he could no longer ignore.

Since the Supreme Court handed Trump its immunity ruling earlier this year, Jack Smith has recalibrated his case. This new filing clarifies Trump’s criminal conspiracy was a private effort, not an official act. Trump's actions were not in his capacity as President but as a desperate candidate willing to do anything to stay in power. 

None of Trump’s interactions with the people listed in the document were made in his role as Chief Executive. Instead, he acted as a candidate grasping at straws, seeking any angle to cling to power. This clarity makes the filing more focused and devastating, particularly as it highlights the involvement of Trump’s campaign staff and personal advisers—figures among the most corrupt and amoral imaginable. 

The document is not only a shocking moral indictment of Trump but an unprecedented window into the fraudulent scheme he spearheaded to maintain power. It exposes Trump’s belief that lies and coercion could resolve any crisis, relying on his subordinates to follow his will without question. What’s remarkable in this filing is how little resistance Trump faced within his inner circle, proving just how far he had ingrained the “stolen election” lie well before the votes were even cast. As alarming as this is, it’s a grim forecast of what may come as Trump continues to sow similar seeds of doubt today.

Surprise!

The legal framework underpinning Trump’s conspiracy was flimsy at best, but the filing reminds us they weren’t just trying to win in court—they sought to disrupt, delay, and destroy the certification of the 2020 election. This is a profound insight into how authoritarian movements weaponize democratic processes to dismantle democracy itself. 

Many of Trump’s attorneys stretched the bounds of credibility and the law to their limits and were well aware that their efforts were fraudulent. Even Trump knew his legal team was a clownish crew of weirdos, whack-jobs, and edge cases, mocking them behind their backs. The fact he brought in Rudy Giuliani to lead this team of skells is the icing on the cake.

When Trump asked RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel to investigate claims of voting machine manipulation in Michigan, her response was blunt: “That theory is… fucking nuts.” Yet Trump persisted, fully intending to declare himself the victor regardless of the actual outcome, with his inner circle toeing the line.

In recent months, political consultants have tried to relegate January 6 to history, arguing that it’s already “baked into the cake” of Trump’s behavior. This is a mistake. January 6 wasn’t an aberration—it was Trump’s will made manifest. His chaotic, dangerous conspiracy shattered America’s tradition of peaceful power transfers and manipulated the legal system in an unprecedented manner. The only saving grace was the incompetence of Trump’s legal team; even Trump himself mocked them. Ludicrous claims from Sidney Powell and Jeff Chesebro were laughed out of court.

When these legal challenges inevitably failed, Trump and his advisors—men like Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, and the leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers—turned toward violence. Trump’s chilling response when told that Mike Pence had been taken to a secure location during the Capitol riot was: “So what?”

Trump’s conversation with Steve Bannon the day before the violence likely stoked the flames further. Bannon, who has long dreamed of revolutionary violence, would not have hesitated to encourage Trump to use the mob to intimidate Congress. Bannon’s podcast, a hub for the “Stop the Steal” movement, even issued a dire warning on the eve of January 6: “All hell is going to break loose.”

This filing should be read in full—it provides an unprecedented glimpse into Trump’s plan. Online commentators have identified many of the redacted names, providing further context. A pattern has emerged: the more Trump posts on social media in a frenzy, the more his guilt seems evident. After Judge Chutkan’s filing was made public, Trump’s manic “Truths” on Trash Social and Twitter confirmed his rising panic.

One of Trump’s talents has been desensitizing the public to the gall and lawlessness of his actions. He dulls our outrage by overwhelming us with one transgression after another. A graduate of the Roy Cohn School of Political Darkness, Trump nearly succeeded in making us numb to his endless violations of the law, American tradition, and simple right versus wrong.

There were moments on January 6 when some form of providence seemed the only thing standing between our nation and disaster. Had the violent element of Trump’s plot succeeded, Mike Pence might have been hanged, certification documents destroyed, and Congressmen like Nancy Pelosi or Mitt Romney could have been targets of mob violence. Had blood been spilled that day, Trump likely wouldn’t have lost a moment of sleep.

I believe Trump’s objective that day was to disrupt the certification process, allowing him to claim, “The phony certification documents disappeared, proving the election was stolen from me.” From there, the entire MAGA propaganda machine would have demanded a revote. Fox News would have echoed these lies, pushing them into the national consciousness.

This document makes it clear that January 6 wasn’t just the culmination of legal failures; it was the final desperate effort of a man and a movement willing to use violence to seize power. The fact that Trump’s plans failed does not diminish how close we came to losing our democracy.

You must not let exhaustion blind you. You must not let Trump’s strategy of weariness and outrage fatigue win.

You should feel shock.

You should feel outrage.

You should remember how close he came to success.

You should feel that Donald Trump remains a danger to your freedom. 

This filing is a stark reminder: he always has been and always will be.