Threats to Democracy (By The Numbers)
My podcast with Ruy Teixeira and John Judis
Ruy and John are two of the most brilliant analysts in American politics, and on this episode of The Enemies List, we tear into the polling and demographics shaping the 2024 election. We dive into the Democrats and younger voter behavior, turnout, and other questions you’ll want to know before 2024.
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This was a great podcast, I listened to it on the way to work this morning. Scary perhaps, but important stuff to know. Particularly, how local Democrats seem beholden to adopt some national level Progressive mantra, which may doom them within their districts. It gives me indigestion when I hear or see someone like AOC (one of the more reasonable members of the "Squad") dump on Senator Joe Manchin for not voting for legislation that would make his task of pursuing re-election in WVA impossible. I have written letter to her office telling her that she should stop, because she will dislike the Republican that takes over his seat even less.
Fascinating stuff. My interest in demographics was mostly around the mathematical models used (technically called demometrics), which are of course completely blind to these effects, although I could conceive of a demometric model for voter mobility. As in so much data analysis, correctly identifying the sub-groups that behave the same is the trick, and both Ruy and John had interesting things to say about that.
I also loved Rick's point about those uncommitted voters "going home" in the end. Man, electorate analysis is interesting!