Fascinating stuff. My interest in demographics was mostly around the mathematical models used (technically called demometrics), which are of course completely blind to these effects, although I could conceive of a demometric model for voter mobility. As in so much data analysis, correctly identifying the sub-groups that behave the same is the trick, and both Ruy and John had interesting things to say about that.
I also loved Rick's point about those uncommitted voters "going home" in the end. Man, electorate analysis is interesting!
I'm not sure that your guests' hypotheses hold up all that well in the face of actual election results.
It's clear that realignment is occurring, but "progressive" ideas around trans rights and diversity don't appear to be the cause. In Virginia, the trans candidate won a Senate seat, the House flipped, and the school board elections showed a rejection of the book bans/regressive ideology pushed by Youngkin. There were numerous LGBTQ wins, and seats were flipped in bright red counties in several states.
Freedom vs repression seems to be resonating, whether it's abortion rights, contraception, children's education, or LGBTQ identification.
Unionization wins and Biden's support of unions will be a factor in 2024.
The concern I have is GenZ turnout...the analysis of the voting patterns of yesterday's election will be telling.
All that said, Democrats have significant work to do to figure out economic messaging, and Biden needs to clarify his achievements and challenges, and his plan to address the latter in a 2nd term.
Rick, this podcast did make my teeth grind. But a reality check came in our local election yesterday. Although the Republicans do outnumber us, the Dems stayed home. We have lots of work to do on all fronts.
This was a great podcast, I listened to it on the way to work this morning. Scary perhaps, but important stuff to know. Particularly, how local Democrats seem beholden to adopt some national level Progressive mantra, which may doom them within their districts. It gives me indigestion when I hear or see someone like AOC (one of the more reasonable members of the "Squad") dump on Senator Joe Manchin for not voting for legislation that would make his task of pursuing re-election in WVA impossible. I have written letter to her office telling her that she should stop, because she will dislike the Republican that takes over his seat even less.
Feels like old talking points. The world changes quickly
Fascinating stuff. My interest in demographics was mostly around the mathematical models used (technically called demometrics), which are of course completely blind to these effects, although I could conceive of a demometric model for voter mobility. As in so much data analysis, correctly identifying the sub-groups that behave the same is the trick, and both Ruy and John had interesting things to say about that.
I also loved Rick's point about those uncommitted voters "going home" in the end. Man, electorate analysis is interesting!
I'm not sure that your guests' hypotheses hold up all that well in the face of actual election results.
It's clear that realignment is occurring, but "progressive" ideas around trans rights and diversity don't appear to be the cause. In Virginia, the trans candidate won a Senate seat, the House flipped, and the school board elections showed a rejection of the book bans/regressive ideology pushed by Youngkin. There were numerous LGBTQ wins, and seats were flipped in bright red counties in several states.
Freedom vs repression seems to be resonating, whether it's abortion rights, contraception, children's education, or LGBTQ identification.
Unionization wins and Biden's support of unions will be a factor in 2024.
The concern I have is GenZ turnout...the analysis of the voting patterns of yesterday's election will be telling.
All that said, Democrats have significant work to do to figure out economic messaging, and Biden needs to clarify his achievements and challenges, and his plan to address the latter in a 2nd term.
Rick, this podcast did make my teeth grind. But a reality check came in our local election yesterday. Although the Republicans do outnumber us, the Dems stayed home. We have lots of work to do on all fronts.
Why would non-whites skew Republican? They are racists.
This was a great podcast, I listened to it on the way to work this morning. Scary perhaps, but important stuff to know. Particularly, how local Democrats seem beholden to adopt some national level Progressive mantra, which may doom them within their districts. It gives me indigestion when I hear or see someone like AOC (one of the more reasonable members of the "Squad") dump on Senator Joe Manchin for not voting for legislation that would make his task of pursuing re-election in WVA impossible. I have written letter to her office telling her that she should stop, because she will dislike the Republican that takes over his seat even less.