Jared! Thank you so much for your excellence while on the committee I was cheering in my house while watching, my god you killed it! Great Democrat! Stay with the party forever please.
Two Harris/Walz rallies in Florida, one by The Villages and the other by Mar a Lardo, complete with roadway signage and airplanes towing signs. The Orange Wonder would lose his mind!
The betting odds I'm aware of are Polymarket, which is backed by Thiel. Thiel chose JD Vance for Trump, and Thiel famously said, "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible."
And Polymarket only accepts bets in cryptocurrency. And last week, several "whales" entered the market, placing heavy bets on Trump.
In other words, this is a right-wing betting market, and normal people in the US don't invest in it. And the market is being distorted by a handful of big players.
So, honestly, I'd ignore Polymarket. As for other betting markets in non-US countries, I don't know.
As for poll averages, at least 80% of the polls coming out in swing states are from right wing pollsters trying to skew the averages, just like in 2022's so-called "red wave."
The polling is such that a 1.5 percentage point change in polls could swing the Electoral College dramatically in one direction or the other. And state level polls are off by 3 to 4 percentage points in _good_ years.
So basically, it's a coin toss, and anyone who tells you otherwise isn't operating from data. You could argue the coin slightly favors one candidate, but it's mostly guesswork.
Thanks! I read an article a few weeks ago about someone who has predicted most of the last elections correctly and got 49/50 states right in 2020 using betting odds instead of polls. His claim was that bookmakers tend to have more motive to look at all the factors before setting odds so that they are less likely to lose money instead of polls which are rarely bi-partisan or objective. We shall see.
I’m a psychologist. Stop using logic and start using emotion. Fear of losing social security, disability and union jobs will sink the right wing. Can someone in Rick’s camp give him this message?
Jared! Thank you so much for your excellence while on the committee I was cheering in my house while watching, my god you killed it! Great Democrat! Stay with the party forever please.
Please watch this to the very end when Dave Bautista goes at Trump. It is f'n brilliant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn-Dw2JUVmo
This podcast was right on. Jared Moskowitz is a true champion of the US House. FL is lucky to have him and so is the US. Thank you Rick, it was fun.
Even if we don't know all the players it's fun to hear the inside baseball point of view with you two pros.
Two Harris/Walz rallies in Florida, one by The Villages and the other by Mar a Lardo, complete with roadway signage and airplanes towing signs. The Orange Wonder would lose his mind!
Excellent interview!
great show! Will order olive oil. Remember, always respect the seven second delay!
This was the best interview EVER!. Thanks Rick and Jared. I needed this!
Rick Wilson — what do you think of the recent betting odds that show tRUMP winning?
The betting odds I'm aware of are Polymarket, which is backed by Thiel. Thiel chose JD Vance for Trump, and Thiel famously said, "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible."
And Polymarket only accepts bets in cryptocurrency. And last week, several "whales" entered the market, placing heavy bets on Trump.
In other words, this is a right-wing betting market, and normal people in the US don't invest in it. And the market is being distorted by a handful of big players.
So, honestly, I'd ignore Polymarket. As for other betting markets in non-US countries, I don't know.
As for poll averages, at least 80% of the polls coming out in swing states are from right wing pollsters trying to skew the averages, just like in 2022's so-called "red wave."
The polling is such that a 1.5 percentage point change in polls could swing the Electoral College dramatically in one direction or the other. And state level polls are off by 3 to 4 percentage points in _good_ years.
So basically, it's a coin toss, and anyone who tells you otherwise isn't operating from data. You could argue the coin slightly favors one candidate, but it's mostly guesswork.
Thanks! I read an article a few weeks ago about someone who has predicted most of the last elections correctly and got 49/50 states right in 2020 using betting odds instead of polls. His claim was that bookmakers tend to have more motive to look at all the factors before setting odds so that they are less likely to lose money instead of polls which are rarely bi-partisan or objective. We shall see.
Crackling Conversation - One of the best yet!
You guys should take the show on the road! Who knew politics can still be fun.
I’m a psychologist. Stop using logic and start using emotion. Fear of losing social security, disability and union jobs will sink the right wing. Can someone in Rick’s camp give him this message?
Oh FFS. Respectfully.