116 Comments

I think they care a lot and have proven so in down ballot elections. But, yes, they need to understand that anti-abortion (no choice or bodily autonomy) is a party-wide stance. I've always thought of town elections as being sort of the blue team v the red team in elementary school sports and to some extent still do, but at this point I wouldn't vote for a Republican for the town council.

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I've read the Supreme Court opinion. The only member of the court who observed his oath and would apply binding Florida precedent and the Constitution was the sole dissenter, Jorge Labarga. The other six are right wing whack jobs who've blithely ignored that binding precedent and the right of privacy expressly provided for in Article I, §23 of the Florida Constitution.

It'll be fun to jam that opinion up their unethical asses in November.

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The GOP will just have to disenfranchise more voters! I guess married women that never changed their names properly can be dropped from the voter rolls.

The reason our country is so messed up is because corporations and the rich have been interfering in the people's business. When they were not obstructing. Now with their corporate owned media they can blame the voters and if anyone objects, their posts will be deleted.

I have been a long time liberal that has always suggested about a 3 month window for abortions and even up to 9 months if the woman's life is at risk or if the woman is a victim of rape or incest.

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The FL referendum essentially reestablishes Roe and puts the cut off point (as in Roe) at viability rather than hard-and-fast number of weeks, and that's appropriate because medical science advances. What these imbecile ideologues refuse to recognize is that Roe _was_ a compromise and allowed the state to prohibit late-term elective abortion, which nobody but the most radical sex libertarians support.

Viability is the national consensus point. The forced birth ideologues have spent decades twisting the issue into preventing "late term abortion" / "abortion on demand" when late term abortions only happen as the result of medical emergencies and are not elective.

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We need some positive notes! Thank you so much for this!

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And speaking of freedom from government intrusion, this is HORRIFYING:

https://omny.fm/shows/countdown-with-keith-olbermann/trump-i-will-federalize-state-and-local-cops-4-3-2

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We need Keith Olbermann’s messages more visible! Thanks for the link!

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Keith and Rick are strongly aligned these days and nobody does a better job taking apart bothsiderism, access journalism and the bad incentives of corporate media than Keith.

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Trump is broke but the billionaires benefactors are coming to the rescue. Would that people were willing and able to realize this schmuck belongs in an orange jumpsuit and never, ever (again) the Whitehouse.

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And thank you Rick for what have done and continue to do. Not a lot of straight shooters willing to call out that monstrosity. If ever there was a poster for the need for mental health care. Mr EVERY THING HE TOUCHES DIES, including our republic and the democratic process.

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Of all the people in this country I feel the most compassion for in the wake of a malignant Trump Presidency: the decent Republicans chased out of their own party after years of service, unwanted children being forced into life without healthcare, shelter, or decent food, well-intentioned but brainless religious rubes, democrats, the LGBTQ+ community, dogs, butterflies, kittens and stuffed animals, by far those I feel most compassion for is women.

And not just the ones now suffering in a post-Roe world, but this women on the right, who--listening to their hapless husbands and men--were told behind closed doors time and time again that Trump was just doing schtick on TV when he said he would punish women for abortion--then voted for Trump because they wanted to believe their men, and then lost their own abortion rights.

Ladies, by now it must be clear that anyone with a beer belly, a dickie-do, a red MAGA hat, an unwashed handlebar mustache, unsaved armpit hair, and missing teeth is no catch for any of you just because he goes to church every Sunday and screams at the TV when Hannity tells them who to scream at this week.

Men who support Trump are not men. They're frustrated, usophisticated, unread Viagra junkies who think that science is a liberal agenda, and a woman's uterus the temple of the Virgin. Having no ability to think for themselves, they allowed a false-prophet and nazi-sympathizer to brainwash them, then they brainwashed you--the women who voted against your own abortion rights.

I know you didn't think that Trump would do it, but he did. And if he wins power, he will do it again. This time, it will be an Executive Order executing a national abortion ban, and the SCOTUS will back him up. This because there will be no political consequences for Trump when he institutes a national abortion ban, because he and his family will suspend the U.S. Constitution, then use the military to stay in power for life. After he is gone, he will pass the presidency by decree to Jaravanka.

And your abortion rights will be gone forever. So, ladies, be angry. Vote. But do not be afraid to hold the MAGA men in your life accountable for their weakness and lies. They deserve your vitriol.

And don't worry about how upset your MAGA husband might be. Because we can just be honest here: A MAGA man is not really anyone you'd want to fuck in the first place.

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Plenty of those so-called decent Republicans had multiple opportunities to stop tfg and decided NOT to. They bought the ticket, now they get to ride the ride.

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They did. You’re right. Decent republicans chose party politics over country. They knowingly supported a fringe lunatic and used base rationalizations to explain Trump as just a political novice.

But at some point, we have to allow repentant MAGAs back into the fold

of American political life on they’ll just go back to Trump.

If there are Trumpers who now regret their support of him, then let’s encourage them to stay that way.

Your thoughts?

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Agreed. I would be surprised if there are more than a handful of MAGAs that would repent and revert to more rational/ normal version of Republican. They are in a cult and it is hard to get out. At the end of the day, they should be welcomed back but I am a life long Democrat so Rs aren't looking to me for guidance. 😀

To me the question is, once tfg passes, who takes over? No one seems to have to charisma or instinct or ability to lead this group. Cults don't normally have a line of succession. Where do these MAGA voters go? They certainly aren't returning to main stream Rs. Do they vote third party?

The bigger issue that is highlighted is that the US needs something like 6 political parties, so that most voters feel like they have someone who more or less ideologically matches with them. It also is a good argument for Rank Choice Voting (RCV) and Proportional Representation (PR)

RCV: https://ballotpedia.org/Ranked-choice_voting_(RCV)

PR: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation

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Ohio had David Pepper and David DeWitt to follow on X and in the news. They were both monumental on explaining the issues which included all of the ways the ohiogop were lying, changing the terminology of the bill so it read “babies” and other measures to confuse the voters. The metropolitan areas carried us through. Rural areas not at all. I think my County voted 87% against abortion. Ugh. OhioGop worked with the churches and yes spewed their lies, especially about abortions through the 9th month. Even though Ohio legalized abortions the AG- David Yost continues to fight it. Goodluck Florida!

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If you want to help a great organization with voter registration and outreach, check out https://mivecinoflorida.com/ They are not part of the Democratic Party but do lean left and have done an outstanding job. Their efforts significantly help with getting the abortion issue on the ballot this fall.

For Rick a hypothetical. Let's say the Biden campaign and the DNC wanted to invest in Florida for the election and spent $10m. How much would the Rs have to spend to keep the state from flipping? My premise is based on the idea of forcing the Rs to defend the state and using limited resources ($$) that would be better used/ more needed in other states/ campaigns.

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They're friends and do great work!

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At least Rick isn’t slamming Dems for being feckless, clueless, and unable to frame an issue in a compelling way.

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Good article, Rick. I appreciate your perspective, particularly coming at this from being in the political game for many years in the state of Florida. I agree that it is a long shot that the Democrats prevail in state-side races this year for either President or U.S. Senate for the reasons that you cite. Still it should provide lots of energy, to help Nikki Fried the current state Democratic Party Chairwoman, and also the most recent Democrat to win an election in a state-side race (Commissioner of Agriculture), which is an important post in a state like Florida, yes? Those who do not believe so, really do not know where many of their fruits and vegetables are actually grown. I do not know if the state is as big a net producer of citrus fruit as it was 30-40 years ago, but in those days Florida oranges and grapefruit were a major thing. This ballot issue should be good for the Democrats, as long as they concentrate on voter registration, which drives turn-out at all levels and encourages those important person-to-person conversations.

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Unfortunately much of our farmland for both citrus and vegetables now grows the rooftops of near zero lotline subdivisions that are taking over our state. Why all these people want to live here with the obscene cost of homeowners and car insurance is beyond me. I live far from the coast, haven’t had a claim in decades, and I was just quoted $7000 for a homeowner policy on my little 2600-square foot house. I won’t even mention the blast furnace of misery that last summer was. We also have palmetto bugs the size of my cat, snakes that come in the house uninvited, and of course Florida Man himself.

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"One last crop of condos" is a sad end to Central Florida's ag heritage.

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Bless you. I have heard about the obscenely high insurance rates that imposed upon Florida's homeowners and car owners. I am recently retired and there is NO WAY I could afford those expenses. I am also sad to learn of the fate of the former citrus groves.

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If Rick Scott is guilty of Medicare fraud why is he a Senator instead of being in jail? Oh, I think I know- has something to do with the ‘justice system’.

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A problem of their own making. Women will continue to be mad.

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Women aren't in control of legislatures anywhere.

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"They simply don’t have the money if things go wrong here, and they won’t have it as long as Trump spends the lion’s share of campaign donations on his legal fees."

So, the GOP has a money crunch problem in general because their generals are clueless Neanderthals in thrall to a criminal with no boundaries, intellect or interest in humanity writ large. They appear to think that controlling people's personal lives, particularly women's bodily autonomy, is the key to securing a legacy when it is precisely the parts of the party's legacy that people most abhor.

In short, how you gonna keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paree, to quote a WWII ditty about our returning soldiers? The answer is, in the long run, you can't. Time moves on and if you insist on going in reverse, being the first Supreme Court to revoke a right wholesale (along with the bludgeoning of the Voting Rights Act) you aren't likely to succeed without proverbial bloodshed. There's enough muscle memory out there for women of all ages and political stripes to strongly protest in defense of their fellow females, from their children to themselves to their elders. The fact that the Backwards Ho movement is largely run by men make the odds of this social engineering coup succeeding slim. As of now, even in the early stages, there are enough horror stories, enough stress on physicians and enough heartbreak to cause wider and wider dissent.

Boys, it didn't work with mom when you were kids and it's not going to work now when you are twice as big and twice as clueless.

In essence, if the body is a temple, women have a right to decide who enters and departs. Funny, you never see those who believe in the right to choose intruding into the lives of those who don't. I have a few friends who would never consider having an abortion and I would never under any circumstances advise them to terminate a pregnancy even if it was risky. The operative word is "choice", which is what is really at issue underneath all of the efforts to regress, whether its proponents of book bans, abortion controls, anti-trans movements or the tossing of efforts towards equality and fairness. These are the same people who think they have a right to turn the United States into a Christian nation with the same circular arguments based on phony history backed up by invented precedents, quite ironic as this Court has specialized in tossing them willy nilly.

While the abortion issue may not turn Florida into a swing state, just the fact that voters will be able to put in their two cents is a big step forward.

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I do agree that the GOP will be forced to spend money in Florida and it will be expensive.

However, the GOP has an 800,000 registered voters gap with the Dems. They have been and are extremely organized. Couple that with voter suppression laws and a 60% floor, it will be very difficult.

We here in Ohio also had a marijuana ballot initiative. We still only garnered 58% approval.

I expect republican women will cross over and vote for abortion rights. It may pass.

However, I think they will continue to vote GOP..

They are too entrenched.

The Dems need the youth to turn out. In droves.

Will they?

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I have to say it baffles me that people targeted by the extremists in the GOP don't figure out they are being oppressed and rebel. According to a friend's son, who is gay, and went to grad school in Miami last year, the gay and lesbians he met were just complacent, because they hadn't felt the full sting of DeSatan's policies yet. I wonder if they and the majority of women there fully absorbed how their rights are being squandered, the hideous health mandates overseen by a complete crackpot and the grotesque imposition of "Christian values" effecting education, it might be a moment for change?

I think you're right about young people. Overall, they definitely skew more progressive and accepting having grown up in a world where they have been exposed to and have largely accepted societal changes. The problem is the voter suppression laws targeting them across the country, which means they have to make an extra effort, not always easy to do when just starting out.

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Agreed. Sadly, pregnant young women are about to find out about “Christian values”.

I think they are complacent because they think their vote won’t make a difference.

They are dead wrong and I sincerely hope the Dems down there can convince them it will make a difference. But Only if they vote out every republican too.

Otherwise the GOP will be not be stopped.

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Lynn, great post but will disagree with you on this, Rs have plenty of smart operatives at all levels, but are being led by perhaps the singularly least qualified person in the tfg. If the party wasn't being led by a narcissistic sociopath the Ds would be in deep trouble. As Rick so famously said, "Everything Trump touches Dies" also goes by the hashtag #ETTD or simply ETTD.

I thought that in both groups in KS and OH framed this issue well. Calling women's health care or bodily autonomy or reproductive rights an issue of freedom. Freedom cuts across political, generational, ethic, etc. lines and removes some of the emotions related to this.

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Love ETTD. I would argue that in reality everything would be different if the worst president in history according to historians of all stripes was not the candidate or better yet had lost in 2016, even the Democrat's prospects would be different, because it would definitely effect the candidates across the spectrum - presumably there would still be things like civility and real, spirited debate to get things done. The brain drain on the right has had a seriously deleterious effect, so if those who left were still having input, it might be tougher in some ways for Democrats, but much better for the country and I say that as a life long Dem. I will also say that the GOP has not been helped by backing up the Big Lie, something I don't think Dems do to that degree. For instance, even though I thought Clinton's impeachment over an ill advised affair was ridiculous, I also saw it as a flaw in his character. Certainly I never argued, "No, he did not have sex with that woman!"

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Agree with your post wit large. The only area that I have a disagreement with you on is that since Gingrich's time as House Leader, US politics have steadily become more polarize. Newt turned it into a zero sum game, where the only acceptable deal was if the Rs got 100% of what they wanted and the Ds got 0% (slight hyperbolically) and tfg accelerated that process.

SCOTUS decisions such as Citizens United and Shelby County added to this as well.

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Don’t forget the Tea Party where amateurism and hatred of expertise was a fixture.

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Whatever the Tea Party has become, they still HATE expertise.

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Project 25 is the result where nouveau fascists say they want to destroy the administrative state but actually just want to replace it with an authoritarian kleptocracy.

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The only women in the country that should be voting for Trump are the ones that wear a floral print dress hemmed just below the knee and a string of pearls as they greet their husbands at the door with his favourite cocktail and the paper while telling him to relax a bit and dinner will be ready in 10 minutes. There are also the handmaids and their commander husbands and the ones who have somehow convinced themselves that they are Christians while practicing none of the tenets. Every other women and their spouses should be part of a blue wave. Remember, the other thing you'd be doing is giving a big fuck you to that infamous Motown group, John Roberts and the Supremes.

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Rick, when this news broke yesterday afternoon, the first thing I thought was “I can’t wait to hear what Rick Wilson has to say about this!” You have given me just what I wanted here—an insider’s well thought through analysis of how this might affect Florida, and the nation, in the fall. I’m so happy that you think highly of Nikki Fried. As a lifelong Floridian and Democrat, I’ve been really depressed about the state of our politics here, and last year I came close to packing it in and moving to Connecticut. But then I got pissed off, said “this is MY home, dammit!!” and here I am. I am hopeful again. I’ll be watching the progress of these issues this year and volunteering too. Thank you again!

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